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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/09 11:00

   Grains Mostly Lower at Midday

   Slow slightly lower grain trade is seen at midday as we square up for the 
USDA numbers.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 50 points. 
The interest rate products are flat to lower. The dollar index is 68 points 
lower and at a new low for the move. Energies are flat to lower. Livestock 
trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $5.


   Corn trade continues to slip with nearby March slipping below $3.60 briefly, 
which was more than 2 cents lower. At midday we are a penny lower which has us 
approximately 13 cents from the contract low printed just over a month ago and 
13 below the six-week high printed last week. The rest of the day trade should 
be in reaction to the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand 
Estimates (WASDE) due out at 11. Expectations are for the domestic corn 
carryover to come in at 1.809 billion bushels versus the 1.802 on the January 
report, the range of estimates is 1.772-1.852 billion. World ending stocks are 
expected to be at 208.1 versus 208.94 on the January report, the range of 
expectations is 203.5-210 million tons. On the March chart the $3.67 50-day 
moving average and the 20-day at $3.66 are nearby resistance. Support to note 
is $$3.60 then the $3.48 1/2 contract low. 


   Soybean trade is a penny lower at midday, meal is $1 lower and bean oil is 5 
points higher. The outside markets remain interesting with the dollar 
continuing to slip giving the appearance of a major trend change. That should 
be bullish for the complex. The stock market and crude oil remain lower but 
have recovered from early losses. The average trade guess for the February USDA 
domestic carryover is 445 million bushels versus 440 on the January report, the 
range of estimates is 403-475 million bushels. The world carryover is expected 
to be at 79.1 million metric tons versus 79.28 last month, the range of 
estimates is 76.4-81 MMT. On the March soybean chart support is at the $8.52 
early January low. Resistance is at the $8.74-6 area where we find the 10-day 
and 20-day moving averages. 


   Wheat trade is steady to 2 cents lower at midday as the trade gears up for 
the February USDA monthly supply and demand numbers. KC has moved to a new 
contract low for the third session in a row which is negative, but market bulls 
argue we have negative news priced-in. The average trade guess for the February 
USDA domestic carryover is 946 million bushels versus 941 million on the 
January report, the range is 930-968 million bushels. The global carryover is 
expected to be at 231.9 million metric tons versus 232.04 seen last month; the 
range of estimates is 229.7-234 MMT. On the March KC chart the low Friday at 
$4.51 1/2 was a quarter cent below the contract low; this is now nearby 
resistance, next would be the 10-day at $4.61. The new contract low at $4.43 
1/4 is current chart support which we are near at midday. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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