DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/15 10:48
Corn Mixed; Soybeans, Wheat Up Midday Thursday
Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans is 10 to 11 cents higher and wheat is 2 to
6 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 255 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is flat. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are narrowly mixed.
Livestock trade is weaker with hogs limit lower. Precious metals are firmer
with gold up $30.00.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday after working past $6.00 for a bit
overnight. Spread trade is turning a bit softer during the day session with
trade coming off the early session lows as new crop is staying near contract
highs with nearby demand and crop progress in both hemispheres continuing to be
debated. Ethanol margins should remain solid with the surge in energy values
Wednesday with stocks remaining very tight. Corn basis continues to hold firm
throughout the belt. Double-crop progress in Brazil looks to have mixed weather
with the dry season approaching and surging cash values locally. Weekly export
sales softened at 327,700 metric tons old crop and 52,600 mt of new with some
cancellations noted. On the May contract, chart resistance is the contract high
at $6.01 1/2, with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.94 now just above the market,
then the 20-day at $5.61 as support.
Soybeans are 11 to 12 cents higher with firmer product values leading trade
back towards the upper end of the range. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 higher and oil
is 0.25 cent to 0.35 cent higher. South America is expected to continue harvest
progress in Brazil with little overall weather change short term and Argentina
looking stable short term. Weekly export sales remain soft at 90,400 metric
tons of old crop, 265,500 mt of new crop; meal was 71,500 mt of old, 26,000 mt
of new, and oil was -1,500 mt with China cancellations noted as well. The May
soybean chart has support at the 20-day at $14.07, which we closed just above
Wednesday with the upper Bollinger Band at 14.40 the next round up.
Wheat trade is 4 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade quickly rebounding
from early selling after soft exports with cool weather and feeder demand
offsetting better rains in the Plains. The downtrend in the dollar is
supportive to buying as well, although it looks to be stabilizing after the
recent slide. Weather in the Plains has some cold in it as well, but threats
look limited so far with northwest Kansas to see temps just below freezing over
the next few days. KC has narrowed back to a 47-cent discount to Chicago, with
Minneapolis 18 cents above Chicago. Weekly export sales were soft at 56,600
metric tons old crop and 274,400 mt of new. KC May on the chart has support at
the 20-day at $5.76 that we held Thursday, with $6.03 the next level of
resistance where we find the upper Bollinger Band, which we are just above at
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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