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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/22 11:14

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Corn is firmer at midday following the slower-than-expected planting 
progress.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are stronger with the Dow futures up 100. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is unchanged. Energies are 
lower with crude down $2.02. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are lower with gold down $5. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is firmer at midday gaining back some of the Monday losses, trade 
is 2 to 4 cents higher. Support is noted from the slower-than-expected weekly 
progress report. Planting progress was listed at 6% complete versus the 14% 
average and only 4% last year. Ethanol margins are still positive and blender 
margins have stabilized after the big break in ethanol values following the 
February and March price spike. The ethanol price spike was due to the 
unavailability of rail cars and a few other factors that artificially lowered 
production. Meaning the lower production was not due to market prices, or board 
margins. The consumer, at the end of the day, lost as this has contributed to 
the higher fuel prices this winter and early spring. Corn basis has remained 
fairly stable but most expect it to firm if futures stay range bound with 
producer movement stalled due to planting time. The USDA announced the sale of 
240,000 metric tons of new-crop corn to Mexico. On the May chart, the two 
consecutive closes below the 20-day moving average of $4.97 led to light 
selling last night. That kept the futures around unchanged then the progress 
news brought in buying to have corn 2 to 6 higher all morning. Long-term 
support remains at the $4.68 200-day moving average. Outside markets have 
turned a little negative for commodities at midday with crude under pressure. 
So corn momentum has flattened.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 10 to 14 lower at midday with negative momentum; futures 
did push below our Monday lows. Meal is mostly $2 to $4 lower and bean oil down 
30-35 points. The weather news is mixed with some moisture, but most believe 
good corn-planting progress has occurred the past few days, and the weather 
picture does look OK over the next two weeks. The beans are sitting on big 
gains over the past several months so there does appear to be more 
profit-taking interest among market longs. May beans traded through nearby 
support at $14.92, the 10-day moving average, which is now resistance. The next 
level of support is the 20-day at $13.74 then the 50-day at $14.22. Key support 
for the November contract is $12.11, the 20-day, which we are challenging at 
midday. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 2 to 4 lower across the three exchanges at midday, with the 
forecast mixed for the winter wheat, and little fresh news out of Ukraine. 
Trade is now in the lower part of our April range and most look for support 
near around our April lows and key chart support at the 200-day moving 
averages. The 200-day moving averages are at $7.06 on the May Kansas City and 
$6.57 on the May Chicago. The winter wheat conditions released this afternoon 
remained at 34% good to excellent with poor to very poor gaining 1 percentage 
point, going to 33%. Crop progress listed 9% of the crop headed versus the 17% 
five-year average. Spring wheat plantings were listed at 10% versus the 19% 
average and 7% a year ago. Wheat has slipped nearly 50 cents over the past four 
days, so we should not be surprised to see mixed action this afternoon. There 
is still enough uncertainty that sellers should be cautious around our April 
lows.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.     

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


(CZ)

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