DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/22 11:06
All Grains Higher at Midday
Grain trade is firm across the board at midday, but off the highs.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 20 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 32 higher. Energies
are mixed with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are
lower with gold down $7.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with two-sided trade early on.
Harvest progress should advance substantially this week, but high moisture
levels are slowing progress and keeping the focus on soybean harvest. The
weekly ethanol production report showed a 12,000 barrel a day increase in
production, and a 400,000-barrel drop in stocks, which has been supportive to
the ethanol and corn markets this morning. On the December chart the $3.49
10-day moving average is support, with the 20-day at $3.38 below that;
resistance is the $3.58 level, which trade is just above at midday, with $3.61
the next level higher from there. The 100-day up at $3.90 is the next upside
major moving average. Trade has been flirting on both sides of the $3.48 50-day
the past week.
Soybean trade is 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with commercial buying tied
to soymeal leading the way, in addition to Chinese buying interest. Meal is $6
to $7 higher and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. Harvest should continue to
advance quickly on soybeans this week with harvest pushing well past the
halfway point. South American weather will continue to be a potential issue
with planting off to a very slow start, and the forward forecasts lacking
widespread agreement on rains but a near-term upturn in moisture appears
likely. The USDA announced 419,000 metric tons of beans sold to China, and
113,000 sold to unknown. On the November chart beans are back above the 10-day
moving average at $9.53, with the 20-day moving average at $9.38 the next level
of support. Resistance is the high from last week at $9.78 1/2 which is just
below the $9.82 50-day moving average, both levels we tested overnight. Harvest
pressure should intensify this week for beans to help limit upside.
Wheat trade is 7 to 10 higher across the three contracts at midday with
support from the firm row crop trade, and the firmer dollar limiting upside.
The spread trade has firmed again this morning indicating renewed commercial
interest especially for Kansas City wheat. Weather remains a mixed bag with
some trouble spots worldwide, especially in Australia. US planting progress
should pick up this week with more open weather in Kansas. On the December
Kansas City chart, wheat has support at the 10-day at $5.93, with resistance at
$6.15, which was the high from last week.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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