DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/09 11:00
Grains Mostly Lower at Midday
Slow slightly lower grain trade is seen at midday as we square up for the
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 50 points.
The interest rate products are flat to lower. The dollar index is 68 points
lower and at a new low for the move. Energies are flat to lower. Livestock
trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $5.
Corn trade continues to slip with nearby March slipping below $3.60 briefly,
which was more than 2 cents lower. At midday we are a penny lower which has us
approximately 13 cents from the contract low printed just over a month ago and
13 below the six-week high printed last week. The rest of the day trade should
be in reaction to the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) due out at 11. Expectations are for the domestic corn
carryover to come in at 1.809 billion bushels versus the 1.802 on the January
report, the range of estimates is 1.772-1.852 billion. World ending stocks are
expected to be at 208.1 versus 208.94 on the January report, the range of
expectations is 203.5-210 million tons. On the March chart the $3.67 50-day
moving average and the 20-day at $3.66 are nearby resistance. Support to note
is $$3.60 then the $3.48 1/2 contract low.
Soybean trade is a penny lower at midday, meal is $1 lower and bean oil is 5
points higher. The outside markets remain interesting with the dollar
continuing to slip giving the appearance of a major trend change. That should
be bullish for the complex. The stock market and crude oil remain lower but
have recovered from early losses. The average trade guess for the February USDA
domestic carryover is 445 million bushels versus 440 on the January report, the
range of estimates is 403-475 million bushels. The world carryover is expected
to be at 79.1 million metric tons versus 79.28 last month, the range of
estimates is 76.4-81 MMT. On the March soybean chart support is at the $8.52
early January low. Resistance is at the $8.74-6 area where we find the 10-day
and 20-day moving averages.
Wheat trade is steady to 2 cents lower at midday as the trade gears up for
the February USDA monthly supply and demand numbers. KC has moved to a new
contract low for the third session in a row which is negative, but market bulls
argue we have negative news priced-in. The average trade guess for the February
USDA domestic carryover is 946 million bushels versus 941 million on the
January report, the range is 930-968 million bushels. The global carryover is
expected to be at 231.9 million metric tons versus 232.04 seen last month; the
range of estimates is 229.7-234 MMT. On the March KC chart the low Friday at
$4.51 1/2 was a quarter cent below the contract low; this is now nearby
resistance, next would be the 10-day at $4.61. The new contract low at $4.43
1/4 is current chart support which we are near at midday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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