DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/25 11:21
Beans, Corns Lower at Midday
Wheat is holding light gains at midday, while row crops struggle.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 100
points. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 5
points lower. Energies are lower with crude down 0.90. Livestock trade has hogs
mixed and cattle and feeders sharply higher to near limit-up. Precious metals
are lower with gold down $5.00.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with weakness in soybeans
dragging corn off the early higher trade. Lighty follow-through buying from
Friday and some warmer temperatures for early August were noted for higher
trade. More moderate temperatures are expected this week thought which kept
buying excitement away. Ethanol margins are expected to remain stable this
week, with blender margins not good with September RBO 13 cents below September
ethanol. Crude is down around a buck and the stock market is lower providing
negative outside influence as we start the week as well. The weekly crop
condition number is expected to be steady with progress remaining ahead of
normal. The weekly export inspections were again a good number at 1.31 million
metric tons. On the December contract support is the contract low at $3.33 1/4.
Resistance is the 10-day moving average at $3.53; then the 20-day at $3.60.
Soybean trade is 14 to 18 cents lower at midday with early support failing
due to no threatening weather forecasts. The negative chart trend brought in
sellers but we found support near our three-month lows printed early Friday.
Meal is $5 to $6 lower and oil is 55 to 65 points lower here at midday. The
extended forecast will be watched closesly with more of the crop moving into
pod fill this week and the first week of August. Moderate forecasts for this
week are keeping yield expectations high but the second week forecast looks
like it could warm up. Export activity should remain good with US offers a
strong discount to Brazil but China may reduce reserve buying with auctions to
liquidate supplies on going. The weekly export inspections were very good for
this time of year at 700,715 metric tons. The weekly progress and conditno
numbers are expected to remain status quo with ratings high and the crop
slightly ahead of normal development. On the November soybean chart support is
at the $9.66 three-month low printed Friday, then the 200-day moving average at
9.53, with resistance at the 10-day moving average at $10.38.
Wheat trade is 2 to 4 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with
further short covering and spreading against long row crops. Fundamental bears
are also going to the sidelines with production estimates rapidly declined out
of France. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is nearing the end, with spring wheat
harvest activity likely to hit full stride in the next two to three weeks.
Quality concerns will remain with low protein a world wide issue this year. The
weekly export inspections are were improved at 549,894 metric tons. The weekly
report this afternoon is expected to show the winter wheat harvest near 80%
complete and spring wheat conditions steady to 2% lower. On the Kansas City
December chart support is the 10-day and 20-day at $4.42-4.43, with the 50-day
the next round up at 4.76.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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