DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/15 10:46
Corn, Soybeans Slightly Higher at Midday
Grain trade is mixed at midday with pressure in wheat, but firmer row crop
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are narrowly mixed. The interest rate products
are higher. The dollar index is 2 lower. Energies are mixed. Livestock trade is
mostly lower. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold up $4.
Corn trade is fractionally to two higher at midday which has us near the
daily highs. Overnight futures were down 3 cents and matched the December low
printed last Thursday. The market further digested the negative monthly crop
report figures over the weekend along with some wetter than desired weather.
The result appears to have been a mixed mentality. The market has priced-in
negative items with our price decline but market bears remain hungry for more.
Thoughts a big crop gets bigger has market bears thinking another 1-3 bushels
per acre can be added on. Market bulls argue harvested acreage will come down
and we have priced-in the negative items. The weekly export inspections were
neutral at 741,230 tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show
steady conditions with maturity lagging a bit behind the five-year average.
Ethanol margins have seen some pressure but remain positive. On the December
chart support is at the $3.35 3/4 low with resistance at the 10-day moving
average right at $3.48.
Soybean trade is 2 to 5 higher at midday in slow trade; futures were down
around a dime initially last night but did not challenge the lows, so some
profit taking has showed up. Meal is fractionally higher and bean oil is up
around 25 points. Outside market are mixed-neutral echoing our mixed grain
trade up to midday. The weekly export inspections were not large but above
expectations at 255,020 tons. Early southern or delta beans are getting into
the export pipeline. The weekly crop progress and condition report is expected
to be about the same with maturity behind normal but conditions around 20%
better than a year ago. Notable November soybean chart support is at the new
contract low printed last Thursday (USDA report day) at $9.69 with resistance
at $10 then the 10-day moving average at $10.03.
Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower across the three contracts at midday due
to follow-through selling and limited fresh news. The market wants to see
better export sales news before enough buying shows up to stop the price slide.
The firmer dollar has worked against this. The Southern Plains continue to
battle ongoing drought, although improved this past month, it can still hinder
early planting and development of wheat. The weekly export inspections were
around the high side of expectations at 545,621 tons. The weekly crop progress
and condition report should show spring wheat harvest winding down, and winter
wheat progress picking up yet a bit behind normal.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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