DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/23 11:27
All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn leads trade lower at midday; crude is down $1.50 pulling grains lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 40 points. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 10 points lower.
Energies are firmer with crude up 0.60. Livestock trade is mostly lower.
Precious metals are mixed with gold flat.
Corn trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday. Trade was lower overnight in
reaction to a contraseasonal crop rating improvement plus the crop tour moves
into the better parts of the belt. Crop conditions yestrday improved 1% to 75%
good to excellent. Crop progress remains ahead of normal with 40% now in the
dent stage versus 34% last year and the 35% five-year average. The crop tour
was talked about a lot over the weekend with expectations it will project a
lower yield than the August USDA number. South Dakota and Ohio yields were
lower on the crop tour, but the I-states should provide higher yields with
observations in Nebraska and Indiana today. Ethanol margins should remain
fairly range bound with futures down a tick this morning, but lower corn is
good for board margins. Corn basis will remain defensive as harvest approaches
with storage likely at a premium this fall. Support is the 10-day and 20-day at
$3.37-3.38, which we are just below at midday. Resistance is at $3.46 followed
by the 50-day at $3.64.
Soybean futures are 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with light selling hanging
around after the good start to the week. Meal is $4 to $5 lower and oil is 25
to 35 points higher. The ratings were steady at 72% good to excellent, but 1%
did improve from good to excellent. There is 89% of the crop setting pods
veresus the 85% five-year average. The crop tour generally found lower pod
counts to open the tour than last year, but move into the better areas today
with early results finding plenty of pods, even where the corn has struggled.
The weather was viewed as neutral today, but with some warmth returning, but a
better rain track out there. The the November soybean chart support is the
10-day at $10.02 below that followed by the 20-day at $9.88. The 100-day at
$10.26 is nearby resistance then the 50-day at $10.45.
Wheat trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with widespread weakness during
the day session with selling returning. The spring wheat harvest continues to
move toward completion, it was listed at 65% complete versus the 46% five-year
average, with Canadian harvest also getting underway. The ratings are no longer
provided since harvest is 2/3 complete. Russia is looking at suspending wheat
export dutities as they wrap up their strong harvest. On the Kansas City
December chart support is at the $4.38 20-day moving average which we are below
at midday then the $4.24 contract low. Resistance is at the $4.49 3/4 August
high then the $4.51 50-day.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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