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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/30 10:54

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Trade is mixed at midday ahead of the USDA June Stocks and June Planting 
Intentions numbers.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are higher with the Dow index up 45. The interest 
rate products are higher. The dollar index is 75 points higher. Energies are 
higher with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower 
with gold down $0.10.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday in quiet trade ahead of the big 
report at 11. Weather forecasts and actual weather will continue to be the 
driver following the report. Ethanol margins are under pressure from the corn 
rally and crude weakness, but holiday weekend demand should help usage. On the 
December chart support is now the 200-day moving average at $4.02 that trade 
was able to hold yesterday. The weekly crop progress report had corn down 3% at 
68% good to excellent, 8% poor to very poor. Silking was rated at 4% vs. 8% on 
average. The average trade guess for the June 1 stocks number set for release 
on at 11 a.m. Tuesday morning is 4.557 billion bushels with a range of 4.35-4.7 
billion versus 3.852 a year ago. The June Planting Intentions average trade 
guess is 89.13 million acres versus 89.2 on the March number. The range of 
expectations is 88.1 million to 91.7 million.


   Soybean trade is fractionally higher to 2 cents lower at midday with profit 
taking vs. recent longs ahead of the report. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil 
is narrowly mixed. Wet weather in the middle of the country has limited 
planting progress, but some 4% of the crop got planted last week. The weekly 
crop progress report showed conditions down 2% at 63% good to excellent, and 9% 
poor to very poor. Planting progress was 94% vs. 97% on average, and blooming 
was 8% vs. 9% on average. On the November chart, the 200-day moving average at 
$9.70 is now support with $10.00 being resistance which we traded through 
briefly. The average trade guess for the June 1 stocks is 679 million versus 
405 million a year ago, the range of estimates is 604-770. The planted acreage 
number is 85.33 million versus the 84.64 million acres, so the unplanted number 
of acres is a bigger deal than the net change from the March report.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade chopping around ahead 
of the report. Harvest progress should continue to improve on the Kansas City 
wheat, but Chicago wheat will be slowed again by the recent rains raising 
additional quality concerns. On the chart, July wheat now has support at the 
$5.80 level, where we find the 200-day moving average. The $6.00 area will be 
the next level of resistance on a further rally. The crop progress report had 
winter wheat harvest at 38% vs. 46% on average, with conditions unchanged at 
41% good to excellent, and 23% poor to very poor. Spring wheat was slightly 
better with 72% good to excellent, with 5% poor to very poor. The average trade 
guess for the June 1 wheat stocks is 712 million bushels versus 590 million a 
year ago, the range of estimates is 650-765 million. The all wheat acreage 
estimate is 55.7 million acres versus 55.37 in March. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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