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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/02 10:43

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Wheat is leading trade lower across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are higher with the Dow futures up 155 points. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 40 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude down $1.20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
lower and hogs higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $6.


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade grinding along in the 
lower end of the recent range. Warmer weather is expected to continue this 
week, which should move maturity with harvest expected to become more 
widespread in the next couple of weeks. Ethanol margins have improved but crude 
oil will need to find support to bolster blender margins into fall. The weekly 
ethanol production report showed production down .42%, stocks up 2%, and 
gasoline demand 2.7% higher, and there were light ethanol imports for the first 
time in awhile. The USDA monthly report is due out next Friday which will be 
the next major news trade this week should be active with some direction from 
the outside markets. On the December chart support is at the low from last week 
at $3.65 and then the contract low at $3.57. Resistance is at the $3.78 20-day 
moving average then the $3.86 high printed last week.  


   Soybean trade is 5 to 10 cents lower with outside market pressure 
overwhelming the early commercial buying. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 40 
to 50 points lower. Beans are starting to carve out a range in the $8.60 to 
$8.90 area with trade in the middle to lower part of that range this morning. 
The weather is still important to determine how the crop will finish out but 
few worries are around with dry pockets as we head towards the finish. On the 
November soybean chart support is at the contract low of $8.55 is support with 
resistance at $8.88 the previous low then the 20-day at $9.08. 


   Wheat trade is 7 to 11 cents lower at midday with the stronger dollar and 
flat row crop trade adding to the defensiveness this morning with the Kansas 
City contract making new lows again. Weak fundamentals and chart pressure will 
continue to limit upside, but some profit taking vs. shorts is probably needed 
in the near term, but further shorts continue to be added for now. Spring wheat 
harvest will be wrapping up soon which should take some of the pressure off the 
Minneapolis contract. Chart resistance for the December Kansas City contract is 
at the $4.89 10-day moving average. Support is at the $4.71 fresh contract low 
reached today.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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