DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/28 11:09
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybean trade is the midday leader, corn is positive, and wheat is lagging.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 16. The interest
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 4 lower. Energies are lower with
crude oil down $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with
gold up $1.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with spillover support from
beans and light weather concerns. The weather forecast looks to be mostly cool
and dry, helping to keep crop conditions fairly stable with some pockets likely
losing some yield potential. Ethanol margins remain solid, with basis remaining
mostly sideways with harvest in the South approaching quickly. The weekly
export inspections edged a bit lower at 805,365 metric tons. The weekly crop
progress report is expected to show mostly stable conditions with a light
decline possible. If ratings are down 2% or more that may spark a little short
profit taking heading into month-end on Thursday. The maturity of the crop is
expected to remain inline with the five-year average. December chart support
with remain the recent low at $3.64, with the 10-day moving average at $3.76
Soybean trade is 12 to 18 cents higher at midday with support from the drier
forecast and light chart buying. Meal is $4 to $5 higher and oil is 25 to 35
points higher. For the bulk of the belt, soybeans look to be entering the
reproductive phase with mostly dry weather, but excessive heat will be lacking.
The weekly export inspections were OK at 112,345 metric tons. The weekly crop
progress report is expected to show conditions stable to slightly lower, with
maturity inline with the five-year average. On the November chart, support is
the contract low of $10.55 from last week, with resistance the 20-day moving
average at $11.00, which we have been testing most of the morning.
Wheat trade is 3 to 8 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with
commercial selling giving back some of the gains from last week. Spillover
support from the row crops has been noted limiting downside. Trade remains
oversold, and a good finish to the day and continued row crop gains will likely
encourage short covering. The weekly export inspections were a little soft at
395,963 metric tons. The weekly crop progress report should show winter wheat
at 85% harvested, and spring wheat conditions slightly lower, and maturity
inline with the five-year average. On the chart, trade is hovering just below
the 10-day moving averages for nearby Chicago and Kansas City wheat at $5.34
and $6.30 respectively, with the lows from last week remaining support for now.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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