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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/15 10:46

   Corn, Soybeans Slightly Higher at Midday

   Grain trade is mixed at midday with pressure in wheat, but firmer row crop 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are narrowly mixed. The interest rate products 
are higher. The dollar index is 2 lower. Energies are mixed. Livestock trade is 
mostly lower. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold up $4. 


   Corn trade is fractionally to two higher at midday which has us near the 
daily highs. Overnight futures were down 3 cents and matched the December low 
printed last Thursday. The market further digested the negative monthly crop 
report figures over the weekend along with some wetter than desired weather. 
The result appears to have been a mixed mentality. The market has priced-in 
negative items with our price decline but market bears remain hungry for more. 
Thoughts a big crop gets bigger has market bears thinking another 1-3 bushels 
per acre can be added on. Market bulls argue harvested acreage will come down 
and we have priced-in the negative items. The weekly export inspections were 
neutral at 741,230 tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show 
steady conditions with maturity lagging a bit behind the five-year average. 
Ethanol margins have seen some pressure but remain positive. On the December 
chart support is at the $3.35 3/4 low with resistance at the 10-day moving 
average right at $3.48.


   Soybean trade is 2 to 5 higher at midday in slow trade; futures were down 
around a dime initially last night but did not challenge the lows, so some 
profit taking has showed up. Meal is fractionally higher and bean oil is up 
around 25 points. Outside market are mixed-neutral echoing our mixed grain 
trade up to midday. The weekly export inspections were not large but above 
expectations at 255,020 tons. Early southern or delta beans are getting into 
the export pipeline. The weekly crop progress and condition report is expected 
to be about the same with maturity behind normal but conditions around 20% 
better than a year ago. Notable November soybean chart support is at the new 
contract low printed last Thursday (USDA report day) at $9.69 with resistance 
at $10 then the 10-day moving average at $10.03.  


   Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower across the three contracts at midday due 
to follow-through selling and limited fresh news. The market wants to see 
better export sales news before enough buying shows up to stop the price slide. 
The firmer dollar has worked against this. The Southern Plains continue to 
battle ongoing drought, although improved this past month, it can still hinder 
early planting and development of wheat. The weekly export inspections were 
around the high side of expectations at 545,621 tons. The weekly crop progress 
and condition report should show spring wheat harvest winding down, and winter 
wheat progress picking up yet a bit behind normal.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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