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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/28 11:08

   Corn Flat to Lower at Midday

   Soybeans and wheat are higher at midday, while corn continues to struggle.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are higher with the Dow futures up 100 points. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 28 points higher. 
Energies are mostly higher with crude up $0.35. Livestock trade is mostly 
higher. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold down $2.

   CORN

   Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower in quiet trade at midday with markets 
taking a wait-and-see approach after the sharp break to start the week.  
Weather forecasts look near ideal with normal-type temperatures and moisture in 
the forecasts, plus some moisture over the weekend was better than expected. 
Ethanol margins remain under pressure from the weaker crude and unleaded values 
eating in the blender margins, although the weaker corn prices are supportive 
to producer margins, and ethanol futures are slightly higher this morning. The 
USDA announced 120,000 metric tons of milo sold to China as well in a positive 
sign for feed grain demand. The weekly crop progress report had conditions 1% 
better at 70% good to excellent, 9% poor to very poor, with silking 1% ahead of 
average at 78%, and 14% in the dough vs. 17% on average. On the December chart 
corn slipped below the $3.97 level where we found both the 50-day and 100-day 
moving averages. This is now chart resistance. The first real notable support 
now is the contract low at $3.62 1/2, which is only 21 cents below our close 
yesterday.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 10 to 15 cents higher at midday with some profit taking vs. 
recent shorts in early trade today. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 30 to 40 
points higher. The Chinese economic concerns will likely continue to weigh on 
the market along with the weak corn and crude oil trade encouraging selling on 
rallies. The weekly crop progress report had conditions unchanged at 62% good 
to excellent, but 1% moved from good to excellent. Progress noted blooming at 
71% vs. 72% on average, and setting pods at 34%, versus 31% on average. On the 
November chart, support now is the contract lows at $8.95. Resistance on a 
bounce will be the 100-day moving average at $9.55, which is the lowest major 
moving average.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher across the three contracts at midday, 
wheat made new contract lows yesterday, which is encouraging some profit 
taking. Wheat is heavily sold and could find more sustained buying if the row 
crop trade remains firmer. The dollar has firmed a bit this morning, dampening 
hopes of a more sustained setback to improve export competitiveness. The weekly 
crop progress report had winter wheat harvest at 85% vs. the 80% average, 
spring wheat was 2% harvested versus 5% on average. Spring wheat conditions 
improved 1% to 71% good to excellent. The Chicago values remain higher than the 
Kansas City values, which indicates the ongoing quality concerns. On the 
September Kansas City wheat chart, support is the fresh low at 4.98 with the 
10-day moving average resistance at $5.20.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


(BAS)

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