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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/23 11:46

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Mixed trade at midday with soybeans firmer and corn/wheat lower. March 
option expiration is today. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 
160 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower. 
Energies are higher with crude up 0.60. Livestock trade is lower. Precious 
metals are lower with gold down $2.50. 


   Corn trade is fractionally lower at midday; we have been mixed with less 
than a 3 cent trading range. Ethanol margins are steady this morning with 
ethanol futures flat to lower. U.S. export values should remain pretty 
competitive. There was a 115,000 metric tons sold to Egypt daily report and the 
weekly sales remaining strong at 1.56 million metric tons. Double-crop areas in 
Brazil look to build some moisture in the coming days, but that is slowing 
planting progress. The USDA outlook forum pegged corn acres at 90 million. On 
the March chart support is at the 10-day at $3.66 with the 20-day at 3.63 below 
that, with the 200-day moving average at $3.76 the highest moving average and 
major resistance with March option expiration putting the $3.70 area in play 
for today. 


   Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents higher at midday with two-sided trade seen so 
far with weather and export cancellations battling so far. Meal is $1 to $2 
higher and oil is 25 to 35 points higher. The weather pattern looks to keep 
Argentina dry, and Brazil wet in the near term that is limiting downside, with 
podfill season fast approaching for Argentina. Volatility should continue here 
in the near term with overbought conditions persisting in the near term. Early 
Brazilian harvest will continue despite being slowed by rains, causing some 
crop losses. The USDA outlook forum put soybean acres at 90 million. An export 
sale of 106,000 metric tons was announced to unknown with weekly sales 
disappointing with -101,900 metric tons of old crop, 221,100 of new, meal 
131,600 metric tons, and oil 42,900 of oil. On the March, support is the 10-day 
moving average at $10.19, with resistance the $10.39, which is the six-month 
high scored Tuesday, and we traded within a quarter of a cent of this morning. 


   Wheat trade is fractionally to 2 cents lower at midday with trade backing 
off the early session highs. The extended forecast continues to be short on 
moisture for the SW Plains with more action east and north. The dollar is 
higher again today, but remains below 90 on the index. The Russian crop will 
continue to be watched with less cover than usual, with Black Sea values 
continuing to edge higher with export offers in the $206-a-ton range for the 
most part. The outlook forum put wheat acres at 46.5 million. Weekly export 
sales were in line with recent weeks at 328,900 metric tons. On the March 
Kansas City wheat support is at the 200-day at $4.72 which we keep chopping 
around, with resistance the recent highs at $4.84.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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