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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/16 10:48

   Grain Futures Slightly Lower Midday Thursday

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower and wheat is 
flat to 4 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 190 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.35 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are 
weaker with crude down $0.70. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. 
Precious metals are weaker with gold down $40.00.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Thursday with trade fading at 
resistance levels and softer spread action so far Thursday after exports came 
in weaker along with little other fresh news. Ethanol margins will continue to 
see pressure from rising corn and natural gas values, offsetting gains in 
unleaded. South America will continue with early full season corn planting and 
little weather concern there so far. Corn basis will likely continue to drift 
lower into harvest with some isolated areas of strength that should push to 
above average pace with the higher temps near term. Weekly export sales were 
soft at 246,600 metric tons, with 2,300 for 2022-23. On the December contract, 
we have support at the fresh low at $4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at 
$5.31, which is where we are Thursday morning.


   Soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower with trade fading back from $13.00 nearby 
and rumors of more cancellations, but confirmation of another 132,000 metric 
tons sold to China. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 1.40 cents to 1.50 
cents lower as product momentum switches places. Warmer weather should continue 
to push the crop towards maturity. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in 
recent days. Trade will watch South American weather, but widespread planting 
won't come until the end of the month, depending on weather with some recent 
showers. Weekly export sales were a little disappointing at 1.26 million metric 
tons for this crop year and 2,000 for next year, with 95,400 of old meal, 
42,400 of new meal, and -1,700 of old oil, 6,100 of new. On the November 
soybean chart, resistance at the 20-day at $12.97, which we have tested 
Thursday morning with support at the recent low at $12.65.


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower with all classes of wheat working to 
consolidate recent gains Thursday morning with KC still showing leadership. The 
dollar is bouncing back towards 9 3points on the index with broad strength 
Thursday morning. KC is at a 7-cent premium to Chicago with early week strength 
holding this week, with Minneapolis at a 194-cent premium on the December in 
flat action. Weather in the Plains looks dry short term as planting gets going 
with little fresh news on Southern Hemisphere weather so far, while StatsCanada 
edged production lower. Weekly export sales were strong at 617,100 metric tons. 
 KC December on the chart has resistance at the 20-day at $7.10, which we 
remain just above with the fresh low at $6.76 1/2 as support.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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