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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/15 11:14

   Grains Lower at Midday

   We have lower trade across the board at midday after some brief higher trade 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 250. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 11 points higher. 
Energies are sharply lower with crude down 2.40. Livestock trade is firmer. 
Precious metals are weaker with gold 15.00 lower.


   Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back slightly from 
the gains seen on Tuesday. Two-sided action was seen, but when outside markets 
turned negative and soybeans turned lower, corn saw spillover pressure from 
them. The weather forecast looks fairly mild in the near term. The weekly 
ethanol report showed production down 28,000 barrels per day, with stocks up 
94,000 barrels. Corn basis will likely continue to fade with more harvest 
activity building with the advanced crop. The export wire has been more active 
in recent days with exporters covering more near-term needs with 55,000 metric 
tons old crop, and 59,472 of new crop sold to unknown. On the September chart, 
futures have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.49, and resistance the 
20- and 50-day at $3.62.


   Soybean trade is 6 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade dipping after the 
early week strength as demand concerns move back to the forefront along with 
mild weather. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower, and oil is 45 to 55 points lower. 
The weather forecast has drifted wetter for all but the northwest part of the 
belt. Bean basis has started to slide ahead of harvest with the slow start to 
export bookings offsetting strong crush margins. Early planting in South 
America will begin next month with much of Brazil on the dry side at the 
moment, but it is too early to provide much excitement one way or another. On 
the September chart, trade has support at the lower Bollinger Band at $8.40 and 
resistance the 20-day at $8.75. 


   Wheat trade is 8 to 13 cents lower with trade falling back to the lows after 
early day session strength as traders focus on nearby supply and slow export 
demand for the U.S. Spring wheat progress will pick up with the warmer weather 
returning this week with harvest expanding. Yields are mixed so far. The strong 
U.S. dollar is keeping the U.S. less competitive on the world market in the 
near term with the ongoing issues. Matif wheat is flat to lower, as well, with 
trade drifting below last week's highs. Australia remains on the dry side with 
the crop pace ahead of normal, as well, with some relief for some areas. On the 
September KC, we are have support at the 100-day at $5.33 and resistance the 
20-day at $5.47.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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