DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/07 10:54
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are narrowly mixed and wheat is flat to
5 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow 190 lower. The dollar index is 2
points higher. Interest rate products are flat. Energies are firmer with crude
up $0.15. Livestock trade is flat to slightly lower. Precious metals are firmer
with gold up $13.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower with a less threatening forecast and
spillover from softer outside markets and little fresh bullish news. The
forecast has higher temperatures and spotty rain for most areas into mid-July
with the second week potentially looking cooler now. Ethanol margins will
likely see continued pressure as gasoline demand wobbles out of the Fourth of
July weekend. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed conditions 2
percentage points lower to 71% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor,
with silking at 10% vs. 16% on average. On the September contract, support is
the 20-day at $3.34 with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $3.49.
Soybeans trade is narrowly mixed with trade able to firm back to the upper
end of the range after early weakness. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is
10 to 20 points higher. The real is up slightly against the dollar and at the
midpoint of the recent range. Crush margins have seen little change in recent
days. Drier weather into mid-month for many will add support, but we remain a
way from the key podfill time frame. The weekly Crop Progress report showed
blooming at 31% vs. 24% on average, blooming at 2% vs. 4% on average, with 71%
good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, unchanged from the previous week.
The August soybean chart resistance is the $9.03 fresh high, with support the
upper Bollinger band at $8.95.
Wheat is flat to 4 cents higher with winter wheat harvest moving toward the
back half of the run, while Russian harvest will continue to expand with
reduced estimates from France on early issues. The ruble remains in the recent
range vs. the dollar with U.S. export competitiveness improved with the sharp
break in the dollar. KC is at a 54-cent discount to Chicago on the August,
while Minneapolis is back to a 16-cent premium. Winter wheat harvest was 56%
complete vs. 55% on average, with 51% good to excellent, unchanged from the
previous week. Spring wheat is 63% headed vs. 68% on average, and 70% good to
excellent and 6% poor to very poor, up 1 percentage point. The September KC
chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $4.22, and resistance is the
20-day at $4.44.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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